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Ilargi: Starting today I intend to do two posts per day in order to lighten the huge mass of information and make the site more accessible. The idea is to post at 12.30 pm and 5.30 pm (today's second post is way late due to an appointment I hadn't counted on).
Ilargi: Bondholders are made whole where they clearly should not. The CEO for Home Depot is paid $9.2 million while he lays of 7000 employees and the company's stock is plunging. It's finally dawning on decision makers that bankruptcy is the only way forward for the US automotive sector. It will let President Obama go into history as the man responsible for 2 million jobs lost and counting.
What will happen to the people losing their jobs to their severance payments and their pensions? We are in for a gale force storm of protests which won't subside until people feel that even if the economy cannot be restored justice can and will. Politicians of the leading western -formerly- industrialized nations will need to open up and explain to their voters what they do and why.
As long as they fail to do that more trouble will be brewing below the surface and eventually erupt. Still when you look at the political landscape in North America and Europe transparency and honest dialogue are missing in action and have largely been for a long time. Politicians are no different from laundry detergent hamburgers chocolate bars and automobiles. They are sold to the public with slogans and images that appeal not to reason but to ba
The G20 summit in Britain this week may show a first string indication of how fed-up people are today with what has become the norm in politics and industry. As long as the mirage of perpetual growth and increasing material wealth can be maintained people are so occupied with their quest to get their share that they are unlikely to complain. What we are witnessing -and living- is the demise of that mirage. Real wealth has been sinking for decades as is easily seen by looking at the development of the costs of education and health care not coincidentally fields that have traditionally not been primarily profit ba
But the loss in real wealth since the 1960-70's has remained mostly hidden behind the curtains provided by the increase in jobs (all women work today) in transportation (every woman needs to have her own car to get to those jobs) and the ridiculous glut in trinkets and other products with a pre-ordained ultra-short term better before date. Selling has become more important than making the package trumps the content.
Today there are no more jobs to be had and the ones that are available pay ever less salary. We will see our "leaders" talk about turnarounds and recoveries till their jaws are blue but the reality is that it's simply over. And people may catch on to that much faster than the leaders anticipate. Think about this: does Gordon Brown have enough political clout left to justify turning Britain's police forces (or more) against his own citizens this week? Does Barack Obama in the months to come?
Bankruptcy Leads Possible Plans for GM Chrysler
The Obama's administration's leading plan to fix General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC would use bankruptcy filings to purge the ailing companies of their biggest problems including bondholder debt and retiree health-care costs according to people familiar with the matter. The move would in essence split both companies into their "good" and "bad" components. The government would like to see the "good" GM to be a standalone company according to an administration official. The "good" Chrysler would be sold to Fiat SpA assuming that deal is completed this person said. GM and Chrysler have had bankruptcy attorneys devising plans for such a move in recent months.
President Barack Obama's task force has told both companies that the administration prefers this route as a way to reorganize the two auto makers rather than the prolonged out-of-court process that has thus far frustrated administration officials. GM looks increasingly like it will be forced into filing for bankruptcy protection sometime in mid-to-late May in a plan where the automaker breaks into two companies the surviving entity a "new GM" that maintains key brands such as Chevy and Cadillac and some international units say several people familiar with the situation. Stakes in this new GM could be given to creditors and UAW members. It is also possible the new company could be sold whole or in parts to investors. The auto makers could avoid bankruptcy in the next two months. And there is some brinksmanship still going on in GM's high-level talks with bondholders union members and creditors.
A key ingredient is getting the UAW to agree to an entirely new labor contract including major reductions in health-care benefits according to several people involved in the matter. "That's the No.1 wildcard here" one of these people said Monday. Under this plan the "good" GM would not be expected to hold the tens of billions of dollars in retiree and health care obligations that hurt the auto maker in recent decades. Instead those obligations would be transferred to an "old GM" made up of less-desirable brands like Hummer and Saturn and underperforming plants and other assets. This part of GM would likely sit in bankruptcy much longer while a buyer is sought for the parts or it is wound down. Proceeds from the sale of old GM would go to pay claims to various creditors including GM retirees. "That is the plan to the extent it comports with the bankruptcy laws" said one person familiar with the matter.
Some of the New GM-Old GM is laid out in the GM viability plan the company sent to the federal government last month. In it GM estimates that it would shrink from 22% of the U.S. market to about 19%. At Chrysler bankruptcy would be used to force new labor contracts and rework debt deals with secured creditors. People working on Chrysler's behalf say the deal is risky because the company is still not convinced that it could survive even a short-term bankruptcy. It could be done in order to meet the Obama administration's demand that Chrysler's creditors agree to huge reductions in their expected recoveries on Chrysler debt. Also Monday new GM Chief Executive Frederick "Fritz" Henderson told employees and dealers that the company will end up in bankruptcy court if it does not significantly accelerate its restructuring efforts in the next 60 days according to a dealer who watched a broadcast of a meeting with Mr. Henderson.
Mr. Henderson said "we'll be in bankruptcy" if the company cannot meet the U.S. government's demands for faster progress on its turnaround plan this dealer said. Mr. Henderson told employees that the Obama administration was disappointed with the company's viability plan feeling it didn't move fast enough or cut deeply enough into the company's debt. GM was told it didn't leave enough money in the company's pockets to get it through a full business cycle either according to the dealer. GM was also told in no uncertain terms that it must learn to make money on smaller cars–not just trucks and sport-utility vehicles the dealer said. Warning that they can't depend on unending taxpayer dollars President Obama on Monday gave GM and Chrysler a brief window to craft plans that would justify fresh government loans. "We cannot we must not and we will not let our auto industry simply vanish" President Obama said at the White House. "What we are asking is difficult" he said. "It will require hard choices by companies. It will require unions and workers who have already made painful concessions to make even more. It will require creditors to recognize that they cannot hold out for the prospect of endless government bailouts."
The remarks came a day after the administration ousted GM Chief Executive Rick Wagoner and rejected the restructuring plans that GM and Chrysler had hoped would lead to another infusion of government cash. Instead the White House is giving GM 60 days to come up with a strategy for viability. Chrysler has a month to wrap up a partnership with Italy's Fiat. Under the revised terms of a proposed alliance between Chrysler and Fiat the Italian company would take an initial 20% stake in the U.S. auto maker down from a 35% stake under its January pact a person familiar with the transaction said Monday. Fiat has been in negotiations with the Obama administration's task force and the government said on Monday that Fiat is viewed as the only route to survival for Chrysler. "We believe we will arrive at a result that will establish a credible future for this crucial industrial sector" Fiat Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne said in a statement.
GM on Monday said it will address "the tough issues to improve the long-term viability of the company" including the restructuring of its financial obligations as it responded to Washington's calls for stronger plans to stay afloat. The administration says a "surgical" structured bankruptcy may be the only way forward for GM and Chrysler and President Obama held out that prospect Monday. "I know that when people even hear the word 'bankruptcy' it can be a bit unsettling so let me explain what I mean" he said. "What I am talking about is using our existing legal structure as a tool that with the backing of the U.S. government can make it easier for General Motors and Chrysler to quickly clear away old debts that are weighing them down so they can get back on their feet and onto a path to success; a tool that we can use even as workers are staying on the job building cars that are being sold."
GM said it prefers to complete its restructuring out of court saying it would complete a more accelerated and aggressive restructuring to put the company on sound long-term financial footing. "We have significant challenges ahead of us and a very tight timeline" said new GM CEO Mr. Henderson. "I am confident that the GM team will succeed and that a stronger healthier GM will play an important role in revitalizing America's economy and re-establishing its technology leadership and energy independence." The auto makers hobbled by the economic downturn and years of reliance on sport-utility vehicles will receive an unspecified amount of working capital from the government while they hone their new plans. Without a Fiat deal the administration said Chrysler won't receive any more taxpayer dollars. The administration expressed confidence GM can survive with more drastic action.
GM and Chrysler received a total of $17.4 billion in government loans in December and have requested roughly another $22 billion to keep them going through this year. President Obama's auto task force combed through the firms' restructuring plans to judge if they merit the additional funds. The verdict released Sunday is that in their current form the plans don't justify any new taxpayer resources. If Fiat and Chrysler reach a definitive alliance agreement the government would consider investing as much as $6 billion more in Chrysler. Despite the grim view of Chrysler the administration's task force said it had no intention of replacing CEO Robert Nardelli. Unlike Mr. Wagoner who had been at the helm of GM since 2000 Mr. Nardelli is considered an auto-industry outsider who has only been in charge at Chrysler since the company was acquired by Cerberus Capital Management LP in 2007.
In addition to pushing out Mr. Wagoner the task force said GM is in the process of replacing the majority of its directors. Kent Kresa a longtime director will serve as interim chairman. Mr. Wagoner will be replaced as CEO by Mr. Henderson who was been serving as chief operating officer. Administration officials on Sunday made it clear that an expedited and heavily supervised bankruptcy reorganization was still very much a possibility for both companies. One official speaking of GM compared such a proceeding with a "quick rinse" that could rid the company of much of its debt and contractual obligations. The clearest losers appear to be the thousands of bondholders and lenders to both GM and Chrysler. In both cases administration officials said that the companies were burdened by inordinate amounts of debt that would have to be scrubbed. Chrysler's survival the administration said would require "extinguishing the vast majority" of the company's secured debt and all of its unsecured debt and equity.
To assure consumers reluctant to buy GM or Chrysler cars the government plans to take the unusual step of guaranteeing all warrantees on new cars from either company. These guarantees would lapse back to the companies once they return to health. Mr. Wagoner had managed GM through some of its most difficult moments. The company hasn't logged a profit since 2004 reporting losses since then of $82 billion. It nearly ran out of money at the end of 2008 before the Treasury Department provided emergency loans. GM's stock was trading above $70 when Mr. Wagoner took over as CEO in June of 2000. The shares closed last week at $3.62 placing the company's market capitalization at $2.21 billion. In Monday trading on the New York Stock Exchange GM shares were down 76 cents or 21% to $2.86.
Mr. Wagoner's tenure came amid challenges that weren't entirely of his own making--including costly retiree benefits and union contracts that predate him and the recent deep recession. Yet GM by most measures performed worse than other auto companies. Among the key decisions that hurt the company: a huge bet on trucks and SUVs that piled up on dealers' lots unsold as high gasoline prices drove Americans to look for more fuel economy offered by rival companies. Mr. Wagoner was asked to step down on Friday by Steven Rattner the investment banker picked last month by the administration to lead the Treasury Department's auto-industry task force. Mr. Rattner broke the news to Mr. Wagoner in person at his office at the Treasury according to an administration official. Afterward Mr. Rattner met one-on-one with Mr. Henderson who will fill in as GM's CEO. "On Friday I was in Washington for a meeting with administration officials" Mr. Wagoner said in a statement released by GM. "In the course of that meeting they requested that I 'step aside' as CEO of GM and so I have."
In a statement released by GM Sunday night Mr. Kresa said: "The Board has recognized for some time that the Company's restructuring will likely cause a significant change in the stockholders of the Company and create the need for new directors with additional skills and experience." Mr. Wagoner's removal shows that the sacrifices could cut deep. The departure of the company's top executive promises to further shake up a company that has already been through considerable change over the past six months. The 56-year-old executive had been scrambling to craft a strategy aimed at maintaining leadership in the global sales chase with Toyota Motor Corp. and making big profits in emerging markets. But Mr. Wagoner's plans came crashing down in the second half of 2008 as the company ran short of cash and was forced to ask the government for billions of dollars in aid. At the same time his executive team started dismantling several parts of the company including a plan to shed several brands slow the pace of new-product introductions and sell stakes in international operations.
Industry's Outlook
The president's auto task force has spent more than a month digging into the restructuring plans that GM and Chrysler submitted last month. The team has struggled to make two determinations: when will the steep plunge in car sales end and what will the market look like once it revives. GM has ba
Among challenges the administration faced leading up to this weekend's decision foremost were the efforts to draw steep concessions from the United Auto Workers union and from the bondholders. Attempts to solidify deals with the UAW and bondholders were slowed by disagreements by both parties over how exactly the other party needed to budge. The UAW for instance insists it already made health-care concessions in 2005 and 2007 and argues that the bondholders have never been asked to concede anything. "I don't see how the UAW will do anything until they see what the bondholders will give up" one person involved in the negotiations on behalf of the UAW said Sunday.
Bondholder Factor
The bondholders have said that they are willing to make concessions but they have wanted to see the union make further cuts. The fact GM raised most of the unsecured debt to fund union health-care and pension costs is also seen as a reason why the union needs to take bigger steps. With Mr. Obama potentially holding off on new loans until concessions are made analysts said GM likely has enough cash on hand to weather at least another month before its need for more government aid becomes urgent. Chrysler may need another infusion of cash sooner. Ford Motor Co. hasn't sought federal assistance. Both GM and Chrysler are negotiating with the UAW to accept a range of cost-cutting measures including greatly reduced work forces lower wages and a revamped health-care fund for retirees.
The U.S. auto industry has been reeling from a plunge in car sales over the last six months. Sales in February were down about 40% over the same month last year. The drop has sent shock waves through the hundreds of smaller parts companies that supply the big auto makers. To keep the sector afloat the administration recently announced a $5 billion financing facility to help suppliers cover their expenses. The original December loans were given under the agreement that all sides would strike a compromise deal by March 31 but the administration is taking advantage of a clause allowing all sides another month to negotiate. "It was unrealistic to renegotiate a new labor agreement and the unsecured debt in so short a time" said Sean McAlinden chief economist with the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor Mich. "That has never happened before."
GM and Chrysler are meant to submit by Tuesday assessments of where their restructuring efforts are heading. In February both companies put forward plans for paring their operations reducing their work forces and eliminating vehicle models. GM and representatives for its bondholders remained in talks over the weekend about a deal that would force these investors to turn in at least two-thirds of the value of the debt they hold in exchange for equity and new debt. This arrangement would force GM to issue significantly more stock than what is currently being traded in the market. In addition the government is being asked to guarantee the new debt with federal default insurance in order to entice bondholders who otherwise wouldn't be interested in participating in the swap.
If GM can't eventually forge a deal with the ad hoc committee representing the bondholders the company may be forced to issue a debt-for-equity swap without the blessing of some of its biggest and most influential unsecured investors. This would heighten the possibility of the company eventually needing to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The group representing GM bondholders was reviewing the White House documents and plans to make a formal response later Monday according to a person familiar with the situation.
>Crisis in Motown
The Rise and Fall of American Icon General Motors
Oct. 5 1998: G. Richard Wagoner Jr. becomes president of GM.
June 1 2000: Wagoner adds chief executive to his title.
Sept. 19 2001: GM unveils 0% financing on new cars and trucks after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks to "Keep America Rolling."
Oct. 28: GM agrees to sell its Hughes Electronics satellite unit to EchoStar Communications ending GM's two-decade foray into nonautomotive businesses.
May 1 2003: Wagoner becomes chairman of the GM board of directors
April 4 2005: Wagoner takes control of GM's unprofitable North America auto unit
April 14: Wagoner tells The Wall Street Journal that the "one specific issue that has reached crisis proportions…(is) the health-care cost issue. It's clearly outrunning our ability to hold it off with other cost cuts."
Oct. 3: GM reports a sales drop of 24% in September 2005 compared with the same month a year ago as sales of Detroit's trucks stall amid spiking gas prices and a consumer shift away from SUVs.
Oct. 17: GM reports a net loss of $1.63 billion. Even after a partial overhaul of retiree health-care benefits through union concessions GM still faces a $51 billion obligation to union members.
Sept. 26 2007: GM and the United Auto Workers union agree to a new four-year contract ending a two-day nationwide strike and creating a new trust fund for retiree health care.
Week of June 9 2008: Average price of gas in U.S. crests above $4; U.S. consumers abandon SUVs and pickup trucks in droves.
Aug. 1: GM reports a $15.5 billion net loss for the second quarter of the year the third-biggest in GM's history as analysts question whether Wagoner can keep his job.
Nov. 7: GM warns that without federal assistance it might not have enough cash to operate its business past the middle of 2009.
Nov. 18: The chief executives of Detroit's Big Three auto makers including Wagoner appeal for U.S. taxpayers to help their industry.
Dec. 2: Auto makers return to Congress this time with turnaround plans in hand. GM says it needs $4 billion to stay afloat until the end of the year. In total the company says it needs $18 billion in loans -- $6 billion more than it said it would need just two weeks before.
Dec. 7: Wagoner comes under increasing pressure from outside the company to resign as part of any broad bailout.
Dec. 11: Effort in Senate to aid auto makers collapses amid partisan disputes.
Dec. 19: White House agrees to $17.4 billion in bailout loans.
Dec. 31: GM receives first $4 billion in loans.
Feb. 26 2009: GM announces a $9.6 billion loss in the fourth quarter of 2008 bringing its loss for the year to $30.9 billion and raising new concern about its viability.
March 27: U.S. asks Wagoner to resign as part of an agreement to receive new package of federal aid.
GM Bondholders Back Obama’s Demand for Deeper Cuts
President Barack Obama may be winning over General Motors Corp. bondholders by calling for deeper cost reductions at the automaker. A more aggressive survival plan would boost the value of equity and new bonds that noteholders would receive in an exchange aimed at cutting $27.5 billion in GM debt advisers to the bondholder committee said today in a statement. Bondholder representatives met with Obama’s auto task force on March 5 and expressed concern that the restructuring plan didn’t go far enough to ensure GM would stay out of bankruptcy.
The Obama administration forced GM Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner to resign after concluding the Detroit-ba
The plan that GM put forward last month didn’t go far enough to ensure profitability at the automaker and unions in particular should be forced to make greater concessions Hastings said. GM also needs the United Auto Workers to agree to cut a cash contribution to a so-called Voluntary Employee Beneficiary Association union retiree health-care fund from $20.4 billion to about $10.2 billion in exchange for equity according to the terms of the original government loan. Carmakers "must produce plans that would give the American people confidence in their long-term prospects for success" Obama said at the White House announcing new and final deadlines for GM and Chrysler LLC to remake themselves. "We cannot make the survival of our auto industry dependent on an unending flow of taxpayer dollars."
GM’s $3 billion of 8.375 percent bonds due in 2033 fell 2 cents to 16 cents on the dollar according to Trace the bond- price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The debt yields 52 percent. GM shares declined 92 cents or 25 percent to $2.70 in composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange. What the administration is asking for "will require creditors to recognize that they can’t hold out for the prospect of endless government bailouts" Obama said. Unions and companies must also make sacrifices he said. The committee of GM bondholders didn’t seek Wagoner’s removal and hasn’t had contact with the task force since the meeting earlier this month according to a person familiar with the committee representing creditors who declined to be identified because the discussions are private.
"We have been very disappointed that the government and company have had virtually no real dialogue with bondholders while designing the proposed restructuring plan" according to the statement from the advisers. "Bondholders have been and remain willing to reduce GM’s future debt burden by exchanging a substantial part of their debt for equity." GM will get "adequate working capital" over the next 60 days while the auto task force works with the company to assess whether it has consolidated enough brands and its debt load according to the administration. GM has received $13.4 billion of government loans since December. The original loan terms called for the carmaker to get bondholders to give up two-thirds of their debt for new equity starting a debt exchange by tomorrow. The GM restructuring now requires "substantially greater balance sheet concessions" than those initially demanded because the auto market deteriorated according to administration documents.
GM’s best chance at success may include a "quick and surgical" bankruptcy according to a summary given to reporters by the administration. Unlike a liquidation or conventional bankruptcy a structured process would make it easier for the companies to clear away liabilities. The bankruptcy process could be as short as 30 days and the government would provide debtor-in-possession financing if needed according to the summary. A so-called prepackaged bankruptcy may be the easiest way to achieve a debt exchange according to the person familiar with the bondholder committee’s thinking. GM’s biggest bondholders also include Capital Research & Management Co. of Los Angeles Boston-ba
Bondholders had asked the government for improvements to the original offer such as a government guarantee of the new notes they’d receive in the debt exchange and they were balking at a proposal from GM last week that called for them to swap more than three-quarters of their stake for equity said the person familiar with the talks. The latest offer would have given bondholders 90 percent of the equity in the reorganized company and a combination of cash and new unsecured notes without a government guarantee the person said. Credit-default swaps protecting against a default by GM rose 4 percentage points to 81 percent upfront according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. That’s in addition to 5 percent a year meaning it would cost $8.1 million initially and $500000 annually to protect $10 million of debt for five years. The derivatives which are privately negotiated contracts used to hedge against losses or speculate on a company’s creditworthiness pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying bonds or the cash equivalent set by the auction.
Chrysler Cerberus Fiat Agree to Alliance to Get Aid
Chrysler LLC and parent Cerberus Capital Management LP have a "fr
"The risks for Fiat remain limited. They’ll have to build a new plan together" said Marco Santino an auto-industry consultant at A.T. Kearney in Rome. "At this point it’s a technicality whether Fiat takes a stake before or after Chrysler’s turnaround." Under the new arrangement Fiat would assemble engines and vehicles in the U.S. the government official said. The Turin Italy-ba
Chrysler needs to eliminate most of its $6.9 billion in secured bank loans and achieve deeper concessions than in its tentative agreement with the United Auto Workers union President Barack Obama’s auto task force said in a report today. The automaker isn’t viable as a stand-alone company and the best option for erasing its debt is an "expedited bankruptcy process" the task force said. As of yesterday Chrysler hadn’t had any negotiations with its lenders which include JPMorgan Chase & Co. Citigroup Inc. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley said people familiar with the company’s efforts.
The lack of progress with the lenders also has held up Chrysler’s efforts to reach a deal with the UAW over the retiree health-care trust fund that is pivotal to reducing labor expenses. Chrysler is asking the union to trade 50 percent of the obligation to the fund for an ownership stake in the company. Without knowing how much of a stake the banks would take that deal can’t be finished Chief Financial Officer Ron Kolka said in an interview March 18.
Ilargi: Canada should forget about its automotive industry and move on.
Chrysler GM Must Rework Overhaul Plans Canada Says
Canada extended deadlines for General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC to work on their restructuring plans and said it won’t provide long-term loans until the overhaul is complete. Canada’s decision follows a similar announcement by U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration. Canada said Chrysler must enter an agreement with Fiat SpA before the end of April and GM has 60 days to rework its plan because the company’s current restructuring wouldn’t leave it viable. "The plans don’t go far enough" Industry Minister Tony Clement told reporters in Ottawa today. "There is some fundamental restructuring that must take place."
Canada will provide a short-term C$1 billion ($796 million) loan to Chrysler with a C$250 million portion to be handed out in coming days. Chrysler needs the funds to meet its payroll requirements Clement said. Canada will also extend a C$3 billion loan to GM to help it stay afloat until it can submit its new plan. These loans were first announced in December. The Ontario government is providing about a third of the funds for the carmakers. Clement Finance Minister Jim Flaherty along with Ontario Economic Development Minister Michael Bryant made the announcement in a televised news conference. Separately Flaherty said today that the leaders of Canada’s autoworkers’ union need to do more on compensation in order to make Chrysler and GM competitive.
"This is very serious and I encourage the union leadership very seriously to go back and speak with management" Flaherty said. "This isn’t about collective bargaining; this is about saving thousands of jobs in Ontario and in Canada." The companies are asking for loans in Canada that are proportional to their requests for U.S. aid and the weight of their Canadian production facilities. Chrysler is asking for about C$4 billion in long-term loans and GM wants as much as C$7.5 billion. Earlier today Obama said GM and Chrysler must survive without becoming "wards of the state" and the companies have one last limited chance to "fundamentally restructure."
Deutsche Bank Chief Risk Officer Says Crisis 'Far From Over'
Deutsche Bank AG Chief Risk Officer Hugo Banziger said the global credit crisis is "far from over" and global financial regulations must be overhauled to regain investor trust. "We are in the middle of it" Banziger 53 said today at an event at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management. The industry has "an opportunity" to build a stable financial system that seeks higher capital buffers and encourage investors to return money to the market and help stem the crisis he said. Deutsche Bank in February reported its first annual deficit in more than 50 years after the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression pummeled bond and stock trading.
The crisis has caused $1.3 trillion in losses for financial companies worldwide a total that may climb to more than $3 trillion Banziger said today citing forecasts. Deutsche Bank has gained 40 percent this month in Frankfurt trading valuing the bank at 18 billion euros ($24 billion) and eclipsing the 5 percent advance in the Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index of 65 companies. The bank fell 10 percent to 28.75 euros in trading today. The German bank skirted the worst of the U.S. subprime mortgage collapse by betting against the bonds that contributed to credit losses and writedowns at the world’s largest financial companies and forced government-led bailouts from Berlin to London to Washington.
The German bank has booked about 9.3 billion euros in writedowns since the start of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in 2007. UBS AG in Zurich has had $50.6 billion of costs and New York-ba
Japan Output Slumps for Fifth Month as Exports Tumble
Japanese industrial production fell for a fifth month in February the longest losing streak since 2001 as exports collapsed. Factory output declined 9.4 percent from January when it plummeted a record 10.2 percent the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. Inventories fell an unprecedented 4.2 percent. Companies surveyed said they will increase production in March and April as they begin to replenish stockpiles they managed to get rid of even as demand evaporated. Manufacturers worldwide are cutting inventories a sign that output may pick up later this year providing relief for a global economy that is contracting for the first time in six decades.
"Production cuts may already be bottoming out" said Shinichiro Kobayashi a senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting Co. in Tokyo. "We should remember that that doesn’t necessarily mean overseas demand is already recovering." The yen traded at 98.15 per dollar at 10:16 a.m. in Tokyo from 98.08 before the report was published. The currency is heading for its worst quarter since 2001 as the world’s second- largest economy deteriorates faster than the U.S. and Europe. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 1.2 percent. Japan’s exports plunged a record 49.4 percent in February from a year earlier as sales of cars and electronics dried up. Toyota Motor Corp. forecasting its first net loss in more than five decades plans to cut thousands of jobs and slash domestic production by half this quarter.
Sentiment among the nation’s largest manufacturers has fallen to its lowest level in more than 30 years economists predict the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey will show on April 1. The country’s largest firms plan to cut investment by 12 percent next fiscal year the biggest pullback since at least 1983 economists predict the survey will show. Prime Minister Taro Aso is preparing his third stimulus package since October to counter the slump. Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said on March 22 that a plan of as much as 20 trillion yen double the total amount pledged since October is "not out of line" as the economy heads for its worst recession since 1945.
"The longer this stretches out the harder the domestic economy is going to be hit" said Martin Schulz senior economist at Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo. "The government really needs to come out with another package." Governments around the world are spending billions of dollars to spur domestic demand as global trade seizes up. Economists say a Japanese recovery hinges on whether a combined $1.4 trillion of spending in the U.S. and China the country’s two biggest markets is enough to revive demand for its cars and electronics in the second half of the year. There are signs a recovery may be stirring in the U.S. Japan’s biggest market. U.S. orders for durable goods rose in February for the first time in seven months. Inventories of long-lasting durable goods fell for a second month and new home sales increased for the first time since July.
In Japan the drop in inventories adds to evidence that the worst of the manufacturing slump may be over. Companies said they would increase production 2.9 percent this month and 3.1 percent in April today’s survey showed. Nippon Steel Corp. said last month output should improve next quarter because customers have used up their stockpiles. Nissan Motor Co. Japan’s third-largest automaker said on Feb. 26 it will raise domestic production next month. "Companies have succeeded as you can see in today’s data at cutting inventories back" Richard Jerram chief Japan economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Tokyo said on Bloomberg Television. "They’re starting to move production back more into line with demand which is still depressed but obviously going to be a stronger level than the January- February period."
Obama and the G-20: Is It 1933 All Over Again?
The newspapers these days say you have to go back three-quarters of a century to grasp the significance of this week's Group of 20 summit of world leaders. Reminiscent of the meeting of leaders of the world's largest industrial and developing nations set for Apr. 2 the June 1933 World Economic Conference assembled 20 foreign ministers eight prime ministers and one king from 66 countries to present a common front against the Great Depression.
Is 1933 apt? And if so are there any lessons are to be learned? There are surface similarities. Both conferences were held in London. In 1933 world leaders filtered through Washington to confer before the conference with America's new President Franklin D. Roosevelt. Today Washington has been a traffic jam of world leaders. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and French Prime Minister Francois Fillon all arrived to try to influence President Barack Obama ahead of G-20. German Prime Minister Angela Merkel talked to the U.S. leader by video conference.
Dig deeper and there are eerie reminders of the challenges leaders faced in the Great Depression. Then as now the prevailing wisdom was that they needed to make a show of cooperation or risk even worse global pessimism. In both cases Europe and the U.S. had starkly different agendas (today the U.S. wants more stimulus while Europe wants to focus on regulation; FDR was focused on economic recovery and the Europeans wanted to stabilize their currencies around the value of gold). And before both conferences credible voices suggested the establishment of an international reserve currency (currently it's China and Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz; back then it was the voice of John Maynard Keynes who nominated the gold equivalent of the dollar as that currency).
SIMILAR BUT MINUS THE GEOPOLITICAL BAD GUYS
And it wasn't just economics—in 1933 too the world was attempting to reset its relationship with Moscow which had remained isolated for 16 years after the Bolshevik Revolution. "It's the best analogy" Simon Johnson a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund who now teaches at Massachusetts Institute of Technology says of the 1933 conference. Earlier this month University of California at Berkeley economic historian Barry Eichengreen told Agence France-Presse that in both cases "political constraints [got] in the way of doing the right thing." One such example he cited: "congressional opposition to more money for Wall Street."
Yet the comparisons go only so far. The absence of an International Monetary Fund a World Bank—or the Group of 20 nations itself—made a restoration of stability and growth more difficult says Paul Kennedy the Yale economic historian who wrote The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000. And politics created a more menacing backdrop he says. "For those getting too alarmed by 1933 you already had bad guys who were in power" Kennedy says in an interview. "In Japan you already had a regime that had invaded and controlled Manchuria. Mussolini was in power in Italy. The Nazis were already assuming autocratic power.…[Today] I don't think anyone is busy with revengeful prowar militaristic feelings. Certainly not any in the G-20."
LESSONS FROM 1933'S "COMPLETE FIASCO"
In terms of lessons Harvard economic professor Dani Rodrick cautions the G-20 leaders on his blog not to repeat the main failing of the 1933 conference which "focused on an outdated goal—restoring the rules of the classical gold standard." Today Rodrick says "European obstinacy" has resulted in nixing fresh financial stimulus that he says "can make a real difference to the world economy." Rodrick also says that more money for developing nations would make a huge difference but that it's not clear this "is being pushed hard enough by any of the rich countries."
Liaquat Ahamed the former head of the World Bank's investment division who writes about the 1933 conference toward the end of his economic history Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World agrees. The 1933 conference he says ended in "a complete fiasco" when FDR refused to go along with Europe's push for currency stabilization ba
Rage follows New York State’s $131.8 billion budget proposal
Gov. David Paterson and legislative leaders that finalized a balanced state budget Sunday night got some feedback Monday from interested parties The proposed $131.8 billion budget that lawmakers will vote on increases spending by 9 percent and includes roughly $7 billion in higher taxes. "We made the tough choices" Paterson said. "If the Legislature can maintain this [spending] discipline over the next few years I can see the light at the end of the tunnel. I can’t tell you that our fiscal woes are over—that wouldn’t be honest. We have not found the floor of this recession." "We did the best we could in a difficult situation" added Senate Majority Leader Malcolm Smith (D-Queens). "This was an unprecedented time. As I’ve said before we cannot cut our way back to prosperity." Paterson Smith and Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver (D-Manhattan) brokered the deal privately over the weekend.
Here’s a sample of what others not involved in those deliberations had to say about the proposed budget:
Senate Minority Leader Dean Skelos (R-Rockville Centre)
• "This state budget is the most fiscally irresponsible budget produced at the worst possible time. It is a complete disaster that could push New York from recession to depression. The end result of the most secret budget process in state history is a plan that taxes too much spends too much and does nothing to create jobs. The budget does not include any measures to create jobs. The massive personal income tax hike will hit small businesses the hardest. The $600 million tax increase on electric and gas bills will add to the highest utility rates in the country."
Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco (R-Glenville)
• "Gov. Paterson could have should have insisted upon transparency openness and accountability but he took the easy way out and in so doing broke a promise he has repeatedly made to not rely on tax hikes or fiscal gimmicks to close the state’s budget shortfall. You have to give Gov. Paterson credit—his ineptitude has succeeded in making Eliot Spitzer look good by comparison. Instead of fixing New York what the governor did was make living and working in New York harder—and the decision to leave our state even easier."
Kenneth Adams president and CEO The Business Council of New York State Inc.
• "The governor and legislature have decided to throw fiscal responsibility out the window. This reckless budget ignores economic common sense crushes New Yorkers with $7 billion in new taxes and slams the brakes on our hopes for recovery. Just when we need private sector job growth to get New Yorkers back to work and lift us out of this recession Albany leaders are telling [New York] employers to take a hike. It is impossible to view this budget as a path to economic recovery. Businesses and jobs will hasten their departure from the state and how can you blame them? Albany treats them with disdain."
Danny Donohue president Civil Service Employees Association (300000 members)
• "No one should have any illusion that it moves New York forward through ‘shared sacrifice.’ The agreement sticks it to state employees and undermines the future of the state’s health care system beyond reason. The budget agreement assumes $481 million in ‘savings’ from the unnecessary layoff of state employees making the Legislature complicit in a reckless and irresponsible plan that is both impractical and nasty while eroding state services at a time when they are needed most."
Daniel Sisto president Healthcare Association of New York State
• "This health care budget plan contains cuts far greater than what our members can absorb without reducing services and laying off staff. The failure of the state to use the federal stimulus Medicaid funding (known as FMAP) to offset these deep cuts in any appreciable way is disturbing as is the disproportionate negative impact this plan will have on public rural and most high-Medicaid hospitals. The plan will result in severe service dislocations and lost jobs. Cutbacks in staff and services should be anticipated in most communities."
Paul Macielak president and CEO New York Health Plan Association
• "Legislative leaders have repeatedly said they are committed to the goals of making health insurance more affordable and expanding coverage to more New Yorkers. However this budget which significantly increases taxes on health insurance is in complete contradiction to that goal. The level of taxes in this budget ... makes a bad situation worse and will result in some people losing the coverage they have. Worse still these taxes punish those who ‘do the right thing’ by providing health insurance to their employees while those employers that could afford it but don’t provide health benefits to their workers get away unharmed."
Robert Moore executive director Environmental Advocates of New York
• "The New York state Legislature should pass what amounts to a very ‘green’ budget during this fiscal crisis. If state lawmakers pass this budget and update the state’s bottle deposit law keep our environmental trust fund up and running and make polluters pay to foul our air and water New York is taking positive steps to protect our natural resources during challenging economic times."
The Chamber of Schenectady County
• "Are you outraged at the governor and Legislature’s attempt to burden the state’s economy with $7 billion in new taxes; the largest increase in state history? Help stop our government leaders in Albany from adding $7 billion in new taxes and $9 billion in new spending to an already bloated budget. Telling your legislators you oppose these massive new tax proposals will only take a few minutes of your time."
New York State Conference of Blue Cross Blue Shield Plans
"At a time when businesses and families are struggling to pay for the cost of health insurance the governor and Legislature have inexplicably added these taxes and fees which will only drive up the cost even further. Neither health plans nor our customers can afford these taxes. Businesses will have to choose between raising an employee’s contributions to the company’s health plan or eliminating health insurance as a benefit. New Yorkers and businesses are struggling financially this budget does nothing more than deliver another devastating fiscal blow."
Kenneth Brynien president Public Employees Federation (59000 members)
"The governor has claimed to have only two choices to achieve the savings: union concessions or layoffs. There is a third choice: cut the enormous wasteful spending on private contractors. Unfortunately the governor continues to move forward with the most damaging choice: layoffs."
G24 Developing Nations Urge G20 To Help Emerging Markets
Group of 24 developing nations Monday called on world leaders meeting in London this week to do more to assist less-advanced economies getting swept up in the global crisis. "Although the crisis originated in advanced economies it is having a disproportionate negative impact on developing countries" the G24 said in a statement ahead of Thursday's Group of 20 summit. "We underscore that this crisis requires collective solutions that pay due attention to their impact on developing countries" said the statement released by the International Monetary Fund.
The G24 is comprised of developing countries from three main regions: Africa Latin America and Asia and emerging Europe. Leaders of the G20 - made up by the Group of Seven leading industrialized countries and major developing economies like China Brazil Russia and India - are gathering for their second meeting since the crisis began to both address the immediate situation and begin work toward a fundamental overhaul of the global regulatory regime. Beyond stabilizing the global financial system and restoring growth G20 leaders also should offset financing gaps in developing countries "caused by the crisis and the responses of advanced countries" and reform multilateral institutions like the IMF and World Bank the statement said.
The G24 called for a "very sizeable increase" in IMF resources through borrowing in the short term but said that should serve as a bridge to a permanent general quota increase by January 2011. Reforms to increase the power of developing countries at the IMF also should take place by that point the statement said while urging that a realignment of votes at the World Bank be complete by April 2010 to reflect its development mandate.
Fed's Duke: Banks Can Play Key Safety Role For Financial System
U.S. Federal Reserve Board Governor Elizabeth Duke Monday said banks play "an important safety-valve role" refuting any idea that banks' role in the U.S. financial system has diminished. In fact some banks appear to be stepping in fulfilling the credit needs of consumers and businesses that had been turned away by their nonbank peers Duke said in a speech in Charlotte N.C. at the 13th annual University of North Carolina Banking Institute. She added the shutdown of the private mortgage-backed securities market has placed greater pressures on bank balance sheets to provide credit to borrowers with damaged credit histories.
When evaluating the significance of banks it's important to take into account their off-balance sheet activities she added. "This 'financial intermediation view' of credit in my opinion illustrates the importance of supporting the availability of all forms of lending whether it be on-balance-sheet lending by banks credit originated by banks and securitized and sold to investors or credit supplied by nonbank lenders" said Duke. She added that off-balance sheet activities have generated considerable earnings for banks. Meanwhile Duke said the federal government's programs to help homeowners modify their mortgages and stem foreclosures should "help to stem the runoff in mortgage debt and to damp the added downward pressure on house prices that can occur when neighborhoods have clusters of foreclosed properties."
Speaking about non-mortgage-related credit growth Duke said history shows that credit growth is likely to slow further in the near-term. She noted many banks have tightened terms and standards for nonmortgage consumer loans. Overall Duke said it's important to recognize banks come in all shapes sizes geographic concentrations and comparative advantages - and the current financial crisis has affected each bank differently. Much attention has been focused on the negative loan growth of large bank holding companies in the fourth quarter of 2008 she said. Still if you look at the country's 20 largest banking firms not just the largest five the decrease in loans is much smaller she said. Furthermore smaller banks actually increased their lending at about a 5% pace during that quarter said Duke.
"This loan growth may reflect that smaller banks in strong financial condition are finding that they can gain creditworthy customers - even in the current economic environment - as other banks cut back on lending to conserve capital and liquidity" she said. "Smaller banks may also be finding opportunities to reclaim consumer and business customers from nonbank competitors who have pulled back as the securitization markets have dried up."
Home Depot CEO earns $9.2 million in 2008 lays off 7000 workers
Home Depot CEO Frank Blake received compensation valued at $9.2 million in 2008 - a 20 percent increase from the previous year - as the company's profit dipped and the retailer laid off 7000 workers according to a regulatory filing Monday. Blake who is also chairman of the nation's No. 1 home improvement retailer ba
However the value of those awards has fallen and some are of little value unless Home Depot's stock price rebounds. The options came with an exercise prices of $26.84 which is about 15 percent higher than the stock's current price. For the fiscal year that ended Feb. 1 Blake saw his ba
The Associated Press executive compensation formula is designed to isolate the value the company's board placed on the executive's total compensation package during the last fiscal year. It includes salary bonus performance-related bonuses perks above-market returns on deferred compensation and the estimated value of stock options and awards granted during the year. The calculations don't include changes in the present value of pension benefits and they sometimes differ from the totals companies list in the summary compensation table of proxy statements filed with the SEC which reflect the size of the accounting charge taken for the executive's compensation in the previous fiscal year.
For the 2008 fiscal year Home Depot's profit fell 49 percent to $2.26 billion or $1.34 per share from $4.4 billion or $2.37 per share. Earnings from continuing operations dropped to $2.31 billion or $1.37 per share compared with $4.21 billion or $2.27 per share a year before. Adjusted earnings from continuing operations were $1.78 per share. Charges related to a decision to close Expo Design Centers YardBIRDS Design Centers and the bath remodeling business HD Bath dragged down results. The Atlanta-ba
Ilargi: Not surprisingly Spain increasingly shows cracks in its facade. The out-of-control home building excesses of the 2002-2007 period will have lasting impacts. And nowhere more than in teh banking sector. Someone wrote the loans for the millions of empty unsold properties in the country and many of those will have to be written off along with the securities issued on them. It may not be a popular thing to do but I still strongly suggest the Spanish government come clean on what is really happening to the economy and seek help where it's needed and possible while it still can.
Spanish Bank Shares Plunge After Savings Bank Takeover
Spanish banking stocks plunged Monday as a banking bailout announced this weekend indicated the country's financial sector may not be as immune to the current financial crisis as previously thought. The Bank of Spain has taken over management of small savings bank Caja Castilla La Mancha and will provide it with as much as €9 billion of liquidity the government said Sunday. Stocks in Banco Santander SA fell 5.6% to €5.04 at 0854 GMT while rival BBVA was down 4.9% to €6.02 and Banco Popular SA fell 5.5% to €4.68 pressuring the IBEX-35 which declined 3.3%.
Spanish Finance Minister Pedro Solbes Sunday said the intervention in Caja Castilla La Mancha was an isolated case and that the overall Spanish banking system remained "extremely healthy." Yet some analysts are not convinced. "This intervention supposes that the Spanish financial system isn't immune to the international situation" Banesto analyst Ignacio Soto Palacios. "We expect a bad performance of the sector in the short run." Given the stretched situation some Spanish savings banks are experiencing there is a possibility of other institutions also requiring intervention by the central bank or the government said Carlos Peixoto at BPI.
Although that risk is highest among the savings banks which don't trade on the stock exchange smaller banks could also experience liquidity problems Peixoto says. Yet he adds that "(Banco) Pastor and Bankinter have no refinancing needs during 2009." Bankinter SA shares traded 3% lower at EUR7.51 while Banco Pastor SA fell 4.1% to €4.22. Finance Minister Solbes Sunday said further banking takeovers were not necessary at this point though if the current crisis drags out that could not be ruled out. The Caja Castilla La Mancha takeover could also have consequences for shareholdings the savings bank has in other companies says Bruno Almeida chief financial analyst at BPI in Lisbon. Spanish energy firm Iberdrola SA in which the savings bank holds 0.6% also underperformed the IBEX-35 Monday falling 3.7% to €5.23.
Deflation fears grow in Spain
Spain’s consumer price index appears to have contracted in March compared with the same period last year fuelling fears that the recession-hit country could be entering a deflationary cycle. The National Statistics Institute said on Monday that a preliminary indicator showed that inflation had slowed to a negative 0.1 per cent for the month down from a 0.7 per cent increase in March last year. It was the first contraction in prices since the current method of calculation was introduced in 1997. The weaker-than-expected Spanish data coincided with a European Commission report showing that the rate of price increases expected by eurozone consumers for the next 12 months was the weakest since its survey began in 1985.With the eurozone economy showing only modest signs of stabilisation after a dramatic contraction in the past six months the latest economic data will heighten fears of eurozone deflation – general and protracted falls in prices that wreak substantial economic damage.
Economists attributed Spain’s negative reading to a sharp fall in energy costs over the year and heavy discounting in consumer items such as clothes and shoes. Pedro Solbes finance minister immediately sought to allay concerns about the risk of deflation describing Monday’s figure as "simply one negative piece of data". "For this reason one has to give it the importance it merits: neither downplay nor exaggerate it" he said.Spain which has among the highest levels of household and corporate indebtedness in Europe has been identified by global economists as at risk from deflation along with the UK and Ireland. Although lower prices boost purchasing power constant disinflation actually encourages consumers to stop spending as they await further declines. At the same time deflation also pushes up the real cost of debt for all sectors of the economy. Standard & Poor’s the credit rating agency said in a recent report that "the UK Ireland and Spain are likely to experience a sharp decline in co